Highlights

  • Heavy rainfall will occur over North Andaman Islands by June 8 and June 9.
  • Heavy rainfall likely over Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Goa from June 9 due to off shore trough

By S Parthasarathy ( a weather enthusiast)

A low pressure area would form over East Central Bay of Bengal by June 8, which is likely to intensify into a depression over North Bay by June 10 and move towards North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.

This is likely to result in heavy rainfall predicted over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha from June 10, when this depression reaches near the coast.

1. Southwest Monsoon progress

As of June 6, Southwest Monsoon (SWM) has set in over south interior Karnataka, more parts of North Tamil Nadu. Due to this system formation, the lower-level westerlies will be pulled from Arabian sea and strengthen in the coming days, hence an offshore trough would form along West Coast of India. This system would intensify and converge along North Coastal Andhra and Odisha also.

Due to this factor, SWM onset will progress along the west and east coasts of India. By June 11, SWM onset is likely to reach coastal Maharashtra, north interior Karnataka, Telangana and over parts of Odisha.

Kelvin Wave

This intensification is supported by atmospheric Kelvin Wave. This wave is likely to emerge into the Bay by June 7 and move towards South China sea by June 8. This wave is not strong at the moment, as it was during Cyclone Amphan. Hence, a depression is possible at the maximum.

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