Southwest Monsoon (SWM) is likely to hit Kerala by June 1 bringing much needed relief to the people.
Low pressure is likely to form over the Southeast Arabian Sea. According to S Parthasarathy, weather enthusiast, it shall trigger southwesterly wind over Kerala and South Tamil Nadu by May 31.
This will bring heavy rainfall over Kerala from May 31 and Southwest Monsoon by June 1. Surface level wind speed will increase above 20 km/hr from May 31 evening over the state.
Since MJO is over West Africa, the Kelvin wave is also weakening in the Indian Ocean. Chances for a Cyclone to form in the SE Arabian Sea are very tough in the next three days. A low is forming by May 31 and it needs to be monitored. This can strengthen further as MJO entering East Africa by May 31 and move towards the West Indian Ocean. We will get a clear picture of Cyclone by May 29/30.
Southwest Arabian Sea Low:
The low-pressure area formed today over West Central Arabian Sea. "Atmospheric Rossby wave is strengthening over the region and with anticipation of MJO in the next few days, This low will intensify into a depression near the Gulf of Aden in the next 48 hours. That system will move towards the gulf coast without impacting SWM onset over India. This system is also getting monitored for cyclogenesis potential,” said Partha In Weather.
(By S. Parthasarathy, weather enthusiast)