A new study has revealed that the daily caseload in Andhra Pradesh may reach 50,000 Covid -19 in the first week of February.

The study was jointly conducted by Prof Siva Athreya of the Indian Statistical Institute and Prof Rajesh Sundaresan of the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bangalore. As per the projections, daily positive cases in Andhra Pradesh may see a spike in the third-fourth week of January with 30% susceptible i.e. 15,000 cases. According to the study, the daily caseload will touch 32,000 with 60 % susceptible in the mid-week of January.


The study says Andhra Pradesh will see a spike during the Sankranthi which is the most important festival of South India. The majority of the people travel from one city to another to celebrate the festival.



The number of Covid-19 positive cases will reach 100% susceptible in the first week of February when the daily caseload may touch 50,000.

The methodology adopted by researchers:

*Past infection, vaccination, affected by immunity waning makes a certain fraction of the population susceptible to the new variant which is taken as a parameter: 30%, 60%, 100%.

Contact rates:

• Estimated by the comparison of contact rates for South Africa during 15 May – 15 June 2021 and 01—12 December 2021.

• Assumed contact rate: Omicron = 1.41 x Delta for 100%. Similar calibration for others.

Calibration:

• On day 0, each state is seeded with 20 cases.

• Once simulated, a suitable delay is added to align to the increasing trend during 27 December 2021 – 02 January 2022.

In the last 24 hours, Andhra Pradesh reported 434 new positive COVID-19 cases, taking the tally to 2075481 cases. The highest number of 68 cases was reported from Chittoor followed by 63 cases in Visakhapatnam and 61 cases in the Krishna district. Total active cases stand at 1848. Around 2059134 patients have recovered so far. Total deaths to date are 14499.

AP now has a total of 28 Omicron positive cases and as per the central government data.

Sri Lakshmi Muttevi

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