Mood of Nation: Focus on 8 crucial UP Lok Sabha seats with high Muslim population

Hyderabad: Eight Parliamentary seats from Uttar Pradesh with more than 40 per cent Muslim population will go for polls in the first phase of general elections scheduled for April 19.

In the Lok Sabha polls in 2019, the Bharatiya Janata Party won three seats: Muzaffarnagar, Kairana and Pilibhit; the Samajwadi Party won two seats: Moradabad and Rampur; and the Bahujan Samaj Party won three seats: Saharanpur, Nagina and Bijnor.

According to the 2011 census, more than 40 per cent of the population in this region consists of Muslims.

The voting in these seats is set to define the mood of the community, the splitting of votes and also the foothold of political parties in the region.

Parliamentary seats of Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Nagina, Moradabad, Rampur and Pilibhit in Uttar Pradesh will help political pundits across political parties devise strategies for the next six phases of elections.

The methodology of BJP – the trend of analysis and reworking of its on-the-ground strategy – is now being followed by all other parties as the elections draw closer.

A seat-wise analysis

Saharanpur: This constituency has the highest Muslim population at 41.95 per cent and the Scheduled Castes make up 22 per cent. The sitting MP is Haji Fazlur Rehman from BSP but the party has given a ticket to Majid Ali.

Sixty-year-old Majid Ali has declared his total assets at Rs 160 crores and is considered the richest candidate in the first phase of UP polls. Ali is looking at encashing the youth vote as unemployment is the biggest issue and it needs to be addressed.

In the 2022 Assembly elections of Uttar Pradesh, the BJP had a vote share of 38 per cent while SP and BSP had a share of 35.5 per cent and 18.2 per cent each.

BJP candidate is Raghav Lakhan Pal who was elected to Lok Sabha in 2014.

India Alliance has allotted the seat to the Indian National Congress and their candidate is Imran Masood. He has served as the chairman of Saharanpur’s Municipal Coration and MLA from Muzzafarabad seat. Masood contested in 2014 and 2019 with 34.14 per cent and 16.18 per cent vote share respectively.

In the 2022 Assembly elections of Uttar Pradesh, the vote share of INC fell to 0.6 per cent.

Kairana: The Muslim population is 41.83 per cent, and the Scheduled Castes make up 15.6 per cent. The sitting MP from the BJP is Pradeep Kumar. The seat has been retained by the BJP which was bagged by Hukum Singh in 2019.

The BJP candidate for the 2024 polls is Pradeep Kumar who has been retained on the seat. He was also a member of 13th and 16th Lok Sabha. The India alliance bloc has allotted the seat to Samajwadi Party whose candidate is London-educated 27-year-old Iqra Hasan.

Iqra comes from a family where her grandfather, father and mother have represented Kiarana in Lok Sabha. Her campaign is interesting as she has taken against Karnataka BJP MP Anant Kumar Hegde’s remark to ‘change constitution’ and is campaigning in the constituency.

Her speeches are appealing to Muslims, Dalits and other backward communities which are high in number.

The BJP vote share was 41 per cent in the 2022 Assembly elections and leading in two Assembly segments (Nakur and Gangoh ), RLD was leading in two Assembly segments (Thana Bhawan and Shamli) and SP was leading in one Assembly segment (Kairana).

Muzaffarnagar: The Muslim population is high at 39.93 per cent and the Scheduled Castes make up 14.2 per cent.

The sitting MP is Sanjeev Kumar Balyan who has been in power since 2014. He has been nominated by the BJP due to his consistent track record. But the seasoned politician has a tough fight from SP’s Harendra Singh Malik, a Jat leader, also a member of Rajya Sabha in 2002 from Haryana.

The BJP vote share was 43.4 per cent in the 2022 Assembly elections and leading in two Assembly segments (Muzaffarnagar and Khatauli), RLD was leading in one Assembly segment (Budhana) and SP was leading in two Assembly segments (Charthawal and Sardhana).

Bijnor: The Muslim population is high here at 40.63 per cent and the Scheduled Castes are at 19.8 per cent.

The sitting MP is Malook Nagar from the BSP but the party has changed the candidate and is fielding Chaudhary Vijendra Singh in 2024. After being denied a ticket, Nagar left BSP and joined the Rashtriya Lok Dal party, which is in alliance with the BJP.

Vijender Singh on March 24 resigned from all posts in the party, forcing the BSP to go into a huddle to rethink strategy. SP has fielded Deepak Saini, son of SP MLA Noopur Ram Avtar Saini and RLD has Chandan Singh Chauhan.

Chauhan is a member of the 18th UP Assembly from Meerapur of RLD. He is the son of RLD politician Sanjay Singh Chauhan and grandson of Chaudhary Narain Singh.

BJP vote share in Bijnor was 40.5 per cent in the 2022 Assembly elections and leading in two Assembly segments (Bijnor and Hastinapur (SC)), RLD was leading in two Assembly segments (Purqazi (SC) and Meerapur) and SP was leading in one Assembly segment (Chandpur).

Nagina (SC) reserved seat: The Muslim population is highest at 43.04 per cent and the SC population at 21 per cent.

The sitting MP is Girish Chandra from BSP but the party has not given him the ticket this time. The new face of BSP in 2024 is Surendra Pal Singh. The SP candidate is Manoj Kumar and the BJP candidate is Om Kumar, a three-time MLA.

The most interesting candidate in this seat is Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) nominee Chandra Shekar Azad, co-founder of Bhim Army. The reserved seat is to see a split in Dalit votes, say observers.

The BJP vote share was 36.8 per cent in the 2022 Assembly elections and was leading in two Assembly segments (Dhampur and Nehtaur (SC)) and the SP was leading in three Assembly segments (Najibabad, Nagina (SC) and Noorpur).

Moradabad: The Muslim population is at 46.31 per cent and the SC population at the second highest at 14.2 per cent.

The sitting MP is from SP ST Hasan who has been denied a ticket this time. The SP has fielded Ruchi Veera, a confidante of jailed leader Azam Khan. Hasan has been bitter about not getting the ticket and stayed away from campaigning.

Kunwar Sarvesh Kumar Singh is the BJP candidate and the BSP candidate is Irfan Saifi who was earlier the president of Thakurdwara municipality.

The BJP vote share was 39.7 per cent in the 2022 Assembly elections and was leading in two Assembly segments (Barhapur and Moradabad Nagar) and the SP was leading in 3 Assembly segments (Kanth, Thkurdwara and Moradabad Rural).

Rampur: The Muslim population is highest at 50.58 per cent and the Scheduled Castes make up 12.9 per cent.

The election of 2024 in Rampur is between SP and BJP only.

The sitting member of Parliament is Ghamsyham Singh Lodhi who won the bye-elections in 2022. The MP elected in 2019 was Mohammed Azam Khan from the Samajwadi Party.

The shadow of Azam Khan looms large in Rampur but as the politician is convicted in criminal cases, he and his family members are not to contest elections.

SP has fielded Mohibullah Nadvi, an imam of Jana Masjid in Parliament House in Delhi. He was born near Rampur city and went to Delhi for religious education in Jamia Milia.

The election of the BJP candidate in the by-polls of 2022 was because Muslims did not vote. They were fearing police and other government officials due to the use of bulldozers in the constituency, said SP workers.

Nadvi is campaigning door to door and reaching out to Muslims encouraging them to vote. The fear is that if they do not vote, the BJP will have an edge.

The BJP vote share was 31.2 per cent in the 2022 Assembly elections and leading in two Assembly segments (Bilaspur and Milak (SC)) and SP was leading in 3 Assembly segments (Suar, Chamraua and Rampur).

Pilibhit: The Muslim population is 26.2 per cent and the Scheduled Castes make up 16 per cent. Pilibhit is to see a triangular contest.

The constituency, located on the Indo-Nepal border, has a sizeable number of Hindu refugees from Bangladesh who are looking forward to the implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act. This number is said to play a major role in the elections of Pilibhit.

The sitting MP was Feroze Varun Gandhi from the BJP. He was also elected in 2009. In 2014, Maneka Sanjay Gandhi, Varun’s mother, was elected from Pilibhit.

The BJP has nominated Jitin Prasada who was a Cabinet minister from Uttar Pradesh Assembly. A former Congressman, he switched to the BJP in 2021. SP candidate is Bhagwat Saran Gangwar, a five-time MLA from Nawabganj and former health minister during the SP government in 2003.

BSP candidate is Anis Ahmed Khan alias Phoolbabu. He contested Lok Sabha elections in 2009 and 2014. He has been MLA from Bilaspur for three consecutive terms.

The BJP vote share in Pilibhit is 51.4 per cent in the 2022 Assembly elections and leading in four Assembly segments (Pilibhit, Barkhera, Puranpur (SC) and Bisalpur) and SP was leading in 1 Assembly segment (Baheri).

Data Credit: Chanakya.com