Fact Check: Viral graphic of ABP-CVoter opinion poll predicting loss for BJP MP Manoj Tiwari is edited

Hyderabad: As the 2024 Lok Sabha elections near conclusion with the last phase of polling on June 1, a purported graphic of an ABP-CVoter opinion poll has been circulating on social media.

The alleged opinion poll claims that the North East Delhi seat is unsafe for Manoj Tiwari—the incumbent BJP MP. It suggests that the Congress-led INDIA alliance would win 258-286 seats, grabbing 70-90 seats in North India and 70-80 seats in South India while the BJP-led NDA would trail behind with 232-253 seats, expected to win 90-110 seats in North India and 20-30 seats in South India. It also predicts 9-11 seats for BJP and 0-2 seats for the Congress party in Chhattisgarh.

A user who shared the graphic (archive) on X wrote, “Manoj Tiwari is gone.”

Fact Check

NewsMeter found that the graphic had been edited by altering the numbers. The original ABP-CVoter opinion poll from December 2023 predicts Manoj Tiwari leading from the North East Delhi seat.

Upon searching the opinion polls on ABP News’ YouTube channel, we found an ABP-CVoter survey dated December 26, 2023. In the video, at the 0.08-second mark, a graphic identical to the viral one appeared. However, it presented a different scenario. In the original graphic, Manoj Tiwari was shown leading with a safe margin from North East Delhi.

Furthermore, the graphic projected NDA as the winner of 295-335 seats overall, securing 150-160 from their stronghold North India, contrary to the viral one depicting NDA trailing behind.

The INDA bloc is forecasted to secure victory in 165-205 seats, with 20-30 seats in North India. The seat projections for South India and Chhattisgarh remained the same in the original and viral graphics.

Here is a comparison of the original and viral graphics.

We also looked into the latest ABP-CVoter survey, reported by the channel on April 16, 2024. According to the survey, the NDA is poised to secure victory in 373 out of the total 543 seats in the Lok Sabha. The BJP alone is forecasted to win 323 seats, marking a notable increase of 20 seats compared to the previous Lok Sabha elections.

Meanwhile, the Congress is expected to make a marginal gain over its 52-seat tally from 2019, projected to secure 65 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Additionally, its allies from the erstwhile UPA are estimated to win 59 constituencies, resulting in a total seat count of 124 for the ‘UPA combine’. The ‘united Opposition’ bloc of I.N.D.I.A, comprising several other parties across various states, is projected to win a total of 155 seats.

Hence, we conclude that the viral graphic has been edited by altering numbers and text to project a loss for Manoj Tiwari in the North East Delhi seat. The viral graphic is misleading.