Opinion: India’s economy is ‘winning’, so why does it feel like we’re losing?

Hyderabad: “Today is the last day for me. Today I had dinner with my mother, and I am going to cheat my parents. Take care of Papa and tell him I was with you only this much. To arrange Sangeeta’s marriage well, even if I am not there. I have burnt all my BSc papers. What is the use of a degree that cannot get me a job? Half of my life has been spent studying; hence, my heart is filled.”

This was part of a suicide note left behind by 28-year-old unemployed Brijesh Pal, a resident of Bhoodpurwa village of Kannauj district in Uttar Pradesh. He had given the police recruitment examination, but a paper leak meant that the 50 lakh candidates, from which 60,000 constables were to be chosen, would have to go through the process again six months later. Instead, a despondent Pal chose to commit suicide on February 23, 2024.

Better to face bombs overseas than starve at home

Across India, youth are so desperate for employment that thousands have applied for menial jobs in Israel, despite the conflict raging there. Better to risk bombs and bullets there, they seem to think, than to starve in your own country.

No surprise then that National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) data shows that 13 people commit suicide every day due to unemployment or work-related stress.

GDP numbers say it's all good

And it’s not just about jobs. There is the cost of living, healthcare, infrastructure, you name it.

If you’ve been following the headlines, however, you’d think India’s economic story is one of unqualified triumph. The numbers certainly tell that tale: real GDP surged 8.2 per cent in the second quarter of FY 2025-26, up from an already impressive 7.8 per cent. The International Monetary Fund projected growth at 7.3 per cent for the full fiscal year. India seems to be outpacing virtually every major economy.

So why does it feel like we’re barely keeping our heads above the water?

This is the disconnect between macro statistics and the lived experience – and it’s not just perception. There are concrete reasons why India’s so-called winning economy feels anything but victorious to millions of Indians.

The employment mirage

Let’s start with what is the most important metric of all: jobs. The government proudly announced that employment has risen from 47 crore to 64 crore between 2014-15 and 2023-24.

Impressive, until you look under the hood.

Self-employed workers constituted 58.4 per cent of the workforce in 2023-24, up from 52.2 per cent in 2017-18. This includes a large share of unpaid family helpers – people counted as employed but who may not earn a rupee. Even more troubling, studies show that urban self-employed workers earned 11 per cent less in real terms in mid-2022 compared to three years earlier.

The official unemployment rate of 4.7-4.8 per cent as of late 2025 sounds manageable. But dig deeper and you’ll find that youth unemployment – those aged 15 to 29 – stands at 14.9 per cent as of November 2025, nearly three times the overall rate. In urban areas, youth unemployment reaches a staggering 18.8 per cent.

Perhaps most damning: 83 per cent of India’s unemployed population are young people, according to the International Labour Organisation (ILO). These aren’t dropouts or the unskilled. The share of unemployed with at least secondary education nearly doubled from 35.2 per cent in 2000 to 65.7 per cent in 2022.

So, we’re producing educated youth faster than we can create jobs worthy of their qualifications.

Where did the investments go?

Economic growth that doesn’t create quality jobs is growth without purpose. One major reason we’re not seeing job creation is the collapse in investment.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has plummeted. Net FDI into India fell 159 per cent in August 2025, with more money leaving the country than entering it that month, according to official data.

This was the second time this financial year that outflows exceeded inflows. When global capital stops flowing in, it means fewer factories, fewer new businesses and fewer opportunities for stable, well-paying employment. Domestic private investment hasn’t picked up the slack adequately either.

The stock market tells its own cautionary tale.

While markets started 2026 on a tentative positive note, the Sensex has declined 2.71 per cent over the past month to around 83,246 points as of January 19. The Nifty fell approximately 2.5 per cent in just the week ending January 9, with broader indices like midcaps and smallcaps falling even more sharply. If you’re among the minority of Indians who have money in the markets, you would’ve watched your wealth erode.

The external storm

Then there are the headwinds we can’t control. The US imposed bilateral tariffs on India, creating enormous uncertainty for export-oriented businesses. While services exports have remained resilient – expanding 8.65 per cent to $270.06 billion in April-November 2025 – this isn’t enough to offset the broader anxiety gripping the business community.

Not all gloom, but…

To be fair, there are bright spots. Inflation eased sharply to 2.82 per cent in May 2025, the lowest since February 2019. This matters enormously for household budgets.

The Reserve Bank of India also cut policy rates from 6.5 to 5.5 per cent between January and September 2025, making loans more affordable for those who can access formal credit.

But these positives don’t fundamentally alter the broader picture.

Here’s what’s really happening: India’s growth model is increasingly service-sector driven and concentrated among a relatively small slice of the population. When GDP grows at 8 per cent but most new ‘jobs’ are actually self-employment out of necessity, when FDI dries up, when stock portfolios shrink and when your educated children can’t find work commensurate with their qualifications, the macro statistics become irrelevant.

The GDP is an abstraction. What matters to people is whether they can find dignified work, whether their savings are growing, and whether their children’s prospects are better than their own. On these measures, for far too many, the economy isn’t winning at all.

Until we address the fundamental challenge of creating quality employment at scale – through manufacturing, infrastructure and genuine private sector investment – India will continue to experience this strange paradox: exceptional growth numbers that somehow leave most people feeling left behind.

The disconnect isn’t just in perception. It’s built into the very structure of our economic growth model. And unless we confront that reality, all the impressive GDP figures in the world won’t change how the economy actually feels to those living in it.

Ashraf Engineer has been a journalist for more than three decades, leading newsrooms and initiatives across print, digital and audio. He is the founder of the All Indians Matter platform, a home for conversations with and about India on issues that matter, and the host of the podcast by the same name.

The views and opinions expressed in the article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of NewsMeter.