Opinion: Lookback at 2023 - Why isn’t China an electoral issue?

Hyderabad: When so much happens in a year, sometimes what didn’t happen is far more interesting to think about. So, while year-enders are usually about the events that made up the past 12 months, I wish to double-click on something that didn’t happen: China becoming an election issue.

The Lok Sabha elections will be held in 2024 and debates about the economy, jobs, welfare schemes, etc., are being cranked up. Also, Pakistan, especially under a Hindutva regime, is always a talking point – so much so that it’s a campaign issue for the state and even municipal elections in some cases.

So, if Pakistan is a serious enough topic for campaigns, why isn’t China? After all, it’s the more dangerous threat and it’s not backing off from the standoff at the border.

How China took land

The government is on record in the Lok Sabha saying that China has, over the years, occupied 38,000 sq km of Indian territory. In November 2020, China built a village in Arunachal Pradesh and satellite images of it were flashed in the media. At least 10 patrolling points along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh were blocked by Chinese troops in 2020, media reports said, adding that India lost access to 26 out of 65 patrolling points in eastern Ladakh.

Indian and Chinese troops clashed in Galwan in December 2020, with at least 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers dying. These were the first fatalities between the two sides since 1975.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, however, maintained that India’s territorial integrity was intact. While there have been several rounds of talks, India and China have upped militarisation along the border and the situation remains tense.

Permanent Chinese military presence

China is focused on building infrastructure and in 2021 passed a law, which stipulated that the state shall “promote coordination between border defence and social, economic development in border areas”. Using this mandate, it built civilian and military infrastructure along the border.

According to a Pentagon report, since the Galwan flashpoint, China has “maintained continuous force presence and continued infrastructure buildup along the LAC.” Satellite images showed a division-level headquarters being built at Pangong Lake. Other satellite imagery showed what appeared to be barracks and new infrastructure in the Galwan Valley. All of this points to a permanent Chinese military presence.

This is worrying – on the one hand, India’s territorial integrity stands challenged, but on the other, the economic fallout of conflict would be significant. China is India’s second-largest trading partner. Between April and September 2023, two-way trade between India and China stood at $58.11 billion. Exports to China were at $7.74 billion while imports from there stood at $50.47 billion.

Only borders care about border conflict

All of this is a matter of great concern as it amounts to a national security issue and should find greater space in electoral campaigns. But it doesn’t. The fact is that India’s foreign policy or relations with its neighbours don’t impact electoral fortunes. It’s domestic issues that occupy centre stage unless it’s Pakistan. But that’s a different story because it was carved out of India in 1947 and there is a communal undertone that the saffron right wing exploits.

What matters usually – at the state and national level – are issues like agrarian distress, farmer suicides, unemployment, cost of living, corruption, local infrastructure, etc. Territory capture and cross-border migration are issues only for the states affected, similar to how Tamil Nadu was always charged up by the plight of ethnic Tamilians in Sri Lanka.

Cross-border migration is a major electoral concern in the northeastern states because it results in demographic changes and impacts employment, housing, the cost of running a state, etc. Such migration remains key for parties like the Mizo National Front and the Asom Gana Parishad.

But, that’s the extent of it. Relations with neighbours don’t impact polls at the larger national level. And this has been historically true. The disastrous 1962 China-India war did not affect Congress’ fortunes. Only when Pakistan is involved does it make an impact.

Forging India’s image through foreign trips

Indira Gandhi was viewed in a new light after the 1971 war in which India defeated Pakistan and played midwife to the birth of a new nation, Bangladesh. The 1999 Kargil conflict with Pakistan returned Atal Bihari Vajpayee to power.

The last Lok Sabha election saw the return of Pakistan as a campaign issue after the Pulwama attack on the Central Reserve Police Force. Modi positioned himself as the only person who could protect the country in the face of such terror and reaped benefits from it.

Possibly, the one (very fuzzy) foreign policy impact has been the perception of India’s elevated status on the global stage. Modi has made it a point to travel extensively across the world and to milk every international summit, such as the G20s and climate talks, for all they’re worth. The year-long marketing campaign celebrating India’s G20 presidency – a rotational one, so India didn’t win it by a vote but because it was its turn – is one example.

The US’ pandering of India, despite the erosion of its democracy, because it needs to counter-balance China in the region, is also presented as evidence of new Indian authority.

This tends to make the electorate feel that India has arrived. The common refrain is that Modi has ‘put India on the map,’ which is far from accurate. India has always had a presence internationally and its voice became proportionately louder as it grew in economic stature through the decades.

What is Opposition doing?

The Opposition, meanwhile, has allowed itself to be painted as a force rooting against the country every time it points out the government’s foreign policy and border security failures.

For example, it criticised the government when it faltered in cobbling together a consensus on a G20 leaders’ declaration. When it did succeed, the Opposition said the government had made concessions to other countries to make it happen. Similarly, the Opposition has failed to highlight the government’s failures regarding China. But that doesn’t mean China shouldn’t get the attention it deserves in our election campaigns.

Why doesn’t the electorate demand clarity and explanations about what’s happening on the border?

India, what gives?

Ashraf Engineer has been a journalist for almost three decades, leading newsrooms and initiatives across print, digital and audio. He is the founder of the All Indians Matter platform, a home for conversations with and about India on issues that matter, and the host of the podcast by the same name.

The views and opinions expressed in the article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of NewsMeter.