How exit polls went wrong with 2024 Lok Sabha elections

Hyderabad: One of the biggest takeaways that has come from the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is how a majority of exit polls, especially on the national level, were proven wrong.

Exit polls on Saturday predicted that prime minister Narendra Modi will retain power for a third straight term, with the BJP-led NDA expected to win a big majority in the Lok Sabha polls.

Exit polls gave 400 se par

India Today-My Axis, India TV-CNX and News 24 Chanakya predicted 400 seats for NDA while other exit polls such as C-Voter, Republic, and Times Now gave more than 350-370 seats for NDA. All of them predicted 150-180 seats for the INDIA bloc.

Exit polls rejected from early poll trends

Even going by the accumulation of early polling trends by 12 pm, it was evident that the exit polls got the results wrong. Even at 1 pm, NDA was yet to cross the 300 mark in leads while the INDIA bloc crossed 230, challenging the poll predictions by all major outlets.

National poll predictions went right in Andhra

One of the few areas where the national poll predictions went right is in Andhra Pradesh where the TDP-JSP-BJP alliance swept the polls defeating YSRCP’s Jagan Mohan Reddy.

According to pollsters Axis My India, NDTV, CNN News 18, Today’s Chanakya and others, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is part of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Jana Sena Party alliance, is expected to win most MP seats in Andhra Pradesh. The YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) which secured 22 MP seats out of a total of 25 seats in the 2019 elections will lag now, according to exit polls.

It is expected that the TDP, a constituent of the NDA, will make a substantial contribution to this total in the 2024 elections. In the 2019 elections, the TDP, JSP and the BJP contested individually. While TDP managed to win only three seats out of a total of 25, JSP and the BJP did not open their accounts.

However, local exit poll agencies who gave an edge to YSRCP got it wrong.

Among all the exit-poll surveys, Andhra Pradesh-based psephologist AARAA Mastaan who leads the popular AARAA Poll Strategies Pvt Ltd’s exit poll predicted that the YSRCP would win the Assembly election with 94-104 seats, while the TDP-BJP-Jana Sena would get 71-81 seats. The predictions turned out to be false.

Opposition’s predictions proven right

The Congress, however, claimed that the exit polls had been ‘orchestrated’ by PM Modi and said these are all psychological games he is masterminding, but the actual results will be very different. Most of the political leaders, especially from the Congress, were angry with exit polls agencies that missed the mark by a wide margin.

When asked about his prediction on the polls, political thinker Yogendra Yadav said, my prediction is the country is safe.