Hyderabad: A mathematical study has predicted that Telangana state might reach 99 percent of the total COVID-19 cases by December 2020. The 99 percent refers to the point of saturation, end time or time when the cases will have recovered.
According to the study, the total COVID-19 cases in Telangana will be most likely between 14,306 and 19,564 in December this year.
Authored by two researchers Dr. Balvinder Kaur Sapra and Prof Bijay Kumar Sahoo of Homi Bhabha National Institute (HBNI) Mumbai, the study predicts COVID-19 infections in the country using a data-driven epidemic model.
A real-time application (COV-IND Predictor) has been developed which automatically syncs the latest data from the COVID-19 dashboard daily.
The mathematical model has predicted that Telangana will reach the peak of its active infected cases in June 2020, with the number of active cases reaching 2,739 cases, in the most likely scenario. This could reach a maximum of 2,912 cases, and a minimum of 2,512 cases.
Besides, the model has predicted that Telangana will see its peak of active COVID-19 today. The cases might surge to 1,916 cases on June 9.
It is pertinent to note that the predicted numbers have come close to the actual numbers released by the state. For example, while Telangana recorded an actual number of 1,771 cases on June 7, the predicted numbers were at 1,796, a difference of 25 cases.
By December, which is considered to be the end-time for COVID-19 infection in the state, the total number of cases in the state is most likely to be between 14,306 and 19,564 cases. The researchers further cautioned that these numbers may deviate according to the changes in real-time data.
The state is expected to reach 99 percent of its total COVID-19 cases in October 2020. The maximum number of COVID-19 cases expected by October is around 7,964 cases.
On the other hand, data shows that the peak of Andhra’s COVID-19 cases may happen on June 23, 2020. The study predicted that on the day the active COVID-19 might reach 2,768 patients in the state.
The study has also analyzed COVID data for the country. “Infection rate in India as a whole is continuously decreasing with time and has reached 3 times lower than the initial infection rate after 6 weeks of lockdown suggesting its effectiveness,” it observed
The study has also suggested that India as a whole could see the peak of the epidemic in July 2020, with 1.7 lakh cases predicted.