2024 becomes warmest year on record, 1st to breach 1.5 deg C guardrail

New Delhi: The year 2024 was the hottest year on record, and the first with a global average temperature 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, European climate agency Copernicus confirmed on Friday.

Every month from January to June 2024 was the warmest ever recorded for those months. From July to December, except for August, each month was the second warmest on record, behind 2023, it said.

According to scientists at the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), 2024 was the hottest year since global temperature tracking began in 1850.

The average global temperature was 15.1 degrees Celsius -- 0.72 degrees above the 1991-2020 average and 0.12 degrees higher than that in 2023, the previous record-holder.

Scientists noted that the average temperature in 2024 was 1.60 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 baseline, the period before human activities like burning fossil fuels began significantly impacting the climate.

This is the first time the average global temperature has remained 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average for an entire calendar year.

However, a permanent breach of the 1.5-degree Celsius limit specified in the Paris Agreement refers to long-term warming over a 20- or 30-year period.

That said, experts feel that the world is now entering a phase where temperatures will be consistently above this threshold.

Harjeet Singh, climate activist and the founding director of Satat Sampada Climate Foundation, said the world is entering a new climate reality -- one where extreme heatwaves, devastating floods, and intense storms will become increasingly frequent and severe.

"To prepare for this future, we must urgently scale up adaptation efforts across every level of society -- redesigning our homes, cities, and infrastructure, and transforming how we manage water, food, and energy systems," he said.

Singh said the world must move from fossil fuels to clean energy quickly and fairly, making sure no one is left behind, and that rich countries have a bigger responsibility to take bold steps.

C3S scientists said that in 2024, greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere hit their highest annual levels ever recorded. Carbon dioxide levels were 2.9 parts per million (ppm) higher than in 2023, reaching 422 ppm, while methane levels rose by 3 parts per billion (ppb), reaching 1897 ppb.

Sea ice extent in the Arctic and around Antarctica, which is an essential indicator of the stability of Earth's climate, reached "record or near-record low values" for the second year in a row.

The year 2024 will also be remembered as the year developed nations had their last big chance to prevent the world from permanently crossing the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold by funding climate action in the Global South, but that didn't seem to materialise.

Relentless warming fuelled record-breaking heatwaves, deadly storms, and floods that devastated lives and homes by the thousands in 2024. Millions were displaced, and all eyes turned to the UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, hoping for a climate finance package capable of ramping up action in the Global South.

A study published in 2023 estimated that developed countries owe around USD 170 trillion for their excessive emissions, having consumed 70–90 per cent of the total carbon budget since the industrial era.

Instead, developed countries -- mandated under the UN climate regime to finance climate action in developing countries -- offered a paltry USD 300 billion by 2035, a mere fraction of the trillions needed annually from 2025.

While political will remains fragmented, science continues to remind the world that it's an emergency.

In 2015, countries came together to limit global warming to "well below 2 degrees Celsius", aiming for 1.5 degrees Celsius. Fast forward, the world has already heated up by 1.3 degrees Celsius since the pre-industrial era, largely due to burning fossil fuels.

To limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the UN's climate science body, IPCC, says emissions must peak by 2025 and drop 43 per cent by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035.

Yet, current policies point to a hotter future -- around 3 degrees Celsius warming by 2100. Even if every country fulfils its climate promises or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), emissions will only shrink by a weak 5.9 per cent by 2030, far below what's needed.

Inputs from PTI