AP State Assembly Exit Polls: Local surveys give YSRCP edge

Amaravati: On June 1, the exit poll survey for Andhra Pradesh State Assembly elections created a flutter. While many local exit poll agencies have given the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) an edge, few national exit polls like My Axis India have indicated the TDP-BJP-Jana Sena alliance as who will form the government in Andhra Pradesh.

The YSRCP won the 2019 Assembly elections with a landslide victory of 151 seats, while the TDP was confined to 23 seats and the Jana Sena secured one seat.

Among all the exit-poll surveys, Andhra Pradesh-based psephologist AARAA Mastaan who leads the popular AARAA Poll Strategies Pvt Ltd’s exit poll predicted that the YSRCP would win the Assembly election with 94-104 seats, while the TDP-BJP-Jana Sena would get 71-81 seats.

AARAA predicted that the YSRCP would achieve 49.41 (+/-2 %) vote share in the Assembly elections, while the TDP-BJP-Jana Sena alliance would achieve 47.55 (+/-2 %). While the others would achieve 03.04 (+/-1 %).

The AARAA also predicted that the YSRCP would achieve 54.76 per cent vote share from women and 45.35 per cent from men. The TDP-BJP-Jana Sena would achieve 42.01 per cent vote share from women and 51.56 per cent from men. While 3.23 per cent of women and 3.09 per cent of men voted for others.

The predictions made by AARA Mastaan regarding the 2019 Andhra Pradesh assembly elections and the 2023 Telangana elections were accurate and nearly mirrored the final results. AARAA projected that YSRCP would easily win more than 137 seats in 2019.

Similarly, in December 2023, the AARAA projected that the Congress party would win between 58 and 64 seats and form the government in Telangana.

Another exit poll by Parthadas predicted 110-120 seats that the YSRCP would win and 55-65 for TDP Jana Sena. Similarly, Janmat Polls forecast that the YSRCP would get 95-103 seats, while the TDP-BJP-Jana Sena would receive 65-75 seats. Hyderabad-based Centre for Psephology Studies (CPS) said the YSRCP would win between 97-108 seats and the TDP-BJP-Jana Sena would win between 66-78 seats.

According to an exit poll conducted by Peoples Pulse, the TDP-BJP-Jana Sena Assembly vote total was an astounding 111–135, whereas the YSRCP was 45–60.

KK Survey predicted that the TDP-BJP-Jana Sena would win 161 of 175 seats collectively, while the YSRCP would win between 14-16 seats. The RISE Political Research predicted that the TDP-BJP-Jana Sena would win above 103 seats, while the YSRCP would secure between 48-66 seats.

According to an exit poll by Jana Galam, the YSRCP is expected to win 44 seats and have the advantage in 13 constituencies, while the NDA's allies are predicted to win 104 seats and have the advantage in 14 seats. Chanakya Strategies predicted that the TDP-BJP-Jana Sena would win between 114-125 seats and the YSRCP would secure between 39-49 seats.