‘Flawed, unacceptable’: Centre rejects study claiming 11.9 lakh excess Covid-19 deaths in India

Hyderabad: The Indian Ministry of Health has strongly condemned a study published in the journal Science Advances which stated that an estimated 1.19 million (11.9 lakh) excess deaths occurred in India during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 which went unreported due to various reasons.

The government said that the survey suffers from potential sampling and reporting errors since the data was collected during the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic.

‘Survey didn’t cover entire country’

The Ministry of Health rejected the study’s findings, stating that the NFHS survey covered only 14 states and Union Territories, representing just 23 per cent of the population.

The ministry deemed the study as ‘methodologically flawed and shows results that are untenable and unacceptable.’

The ministry argued that extrapolating the data to the entire country was inappropriate, especially amid sampling and reporting errors owing to the pandemic.

Civil Registration System (CRS)

According to the ministry, India’s Civil Registration System (CRS) recorded 4,74,000 excess deaths in 2020 compared to 2019, attributing this increase to better death registration coverage (92% in 2019 Vs 99% in 2020), rather than solely due to Covid-19.

The ministry emphasised that the CRS is robust and reliable, capturing over 99 per cent of deaths in 2020.

Sample Registration System (SRS)

The ministry also pointed to the Sample Registration System (SRS), which covered a significant population across the country.

According to SRS data, there was very little excess mortality between 2019 and 2020, with crude death rates remaining stable at 6 per 1,000 persons in both years.

‘Study inconsistent with established Covid-19 mortality patterns’

Dr MSS Mukharjee from Hyderabad stated that the study’s findings were inconsistent with the established Covid-19 mortality patterns. The study claimed higher excess mortality among females and younger populations, whereas official data showed higher mortality among males and older age groups.

Dr Mukharjee criticised the study, saying, “The all-cause excess mortality in 2020 compared with the previous year in India is markedly less than the 11.9 lakh deaths reported in the Science Advances paper.”

Dr Mukharjee stated that the study exhibited several discrepancies, such as its failure to acknowledge the robustness of India’s CRS and the inconsistency of its findings with SRS data.

He stated, “The study is erroneous, and the methodology followed by the authors has critical flaws; the claims are inconsistent and unexplainable.”

True impact of the pandemic underestimated

Despite the ministry’s rejection, several sources suggest that government figures may underestimate the true impact of the pandemic.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has indicated that India experienced the highest excess deaths globally during the pandemic. However, official figures for 2020 reported roughly 1,50,000 Covid-19 deaths, significantly lower than the study’s estimates.

The study, based on data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) 2021, suggested a 17 per cent increase in mortality and a 2.6-year decline in life expectancy from 2019 to 2020.

The study also highlighted disparities in life expectancy declines across different demographic groups, including religion and caste.