Good news for farmers: Expect above-normal rainfall across India this monsoon

Hyderabad: Seasonal rainfall during the June–September 2025 southwest monsoon is likely to be 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87 cm, with a model error margin of ±5%, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The forecast, released on April 15, 2025, indicates a high probability of above-normal rainfall across much of the country.

High Probability of Strong Monsoon

IMD’s forecast places a 59% probability on the monsoon rainfall being either “above normal” (105–110% of LPA) or “excess” (>110%).

“Our current models show a strong tendency towards an above-normal monsoon this year, which will be beneficial for agriculture and water resources,” meteorologist K.S. Sridhar, speaking to NewsMeter.

Category-wise Forecast Probabilities:

ENSO and Atmospheric Conditions

Currently, Neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing in the equatorial Pacific, although the atmospheric circulation exhibits La Niña-like patterns.

“Even though oceanic indicators are neutral, the atmospheric response is skewed toward La Niña, which historically supports stronger monsoons,” explained Sridhar. He added, “This hybrid signal is one of the reasons we’re cautiously optimistic about an above-normal season.”

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Remains Neutral

The forecast also notes neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, expected to continue during the monsoon period.

“IOD has a significant impact on monsoon strength and distribution. Though neutral now, any late shift to a positive phase could further enhance rainfall,” said Sridhar.

Lower Snow Cover May Boost Rainfall

One of the key contributing factors to the positive outlook is reduced snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia in the past three months.

“There’s a well-established inverse relationship between Eurasian snow cover and Indian monsoon strength. This year’s below-normal snow cover is a positive signal for the coming season,” said Sridhar.

Advanced Multi-Model Forecasting Approach

The forecast relies on the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) system, combining inputs from global climate models and IMD’s Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS).

The first stage forecast, issued in April, provides an all-India outlook. The second stage, expected by late May, will give regional estimates for the four homogeneous rainfall zones and the monsoon core zone.

Spatial Distribution: Mixed Outlook

The spatial forecast suggests above-normal rainfall over most of India, with exceptions in northwest India, northeast India, and parts of the southern peninsula, which may receive below-normal rainfall. Several regions also show no clear signal, indicating near-equal chances for all outcomes.

Monthly Forecasts to Follow

IMD will continue to issue monthly and sub-seasonal forecasts through June, July, and August. A mid-season update will also provide forecasts for August and the second half of the monsoon season, helping planners and farmers make informed decisions.