Monsoon likely to be normal for Telangana, forecasts IMD

Hyderabad: As the countdown for the southwest monsoon begins, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted that the seasonal (June to September) rainfall over Telangana will most likely be normal. Seasonal rainfall is most likely to be normal in the range of 93 percent to 107 percent with a forecast probability of 33 percent to 34 percent.

According to the National Weather Forecasting Centre of the India Meteorological Department the monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to take place by 03rd June 2021. As per the latest meteorological indications, the southwesterly winds could strengthen further gradually from June 1, resulting in a likely enhancement in rainfall activity over Kerala. The IMD are yet to announce the date of monsoon arrival in Telangana.

The forecast for monsoon includes normal rainfall well distributed over most parts the state during the period from June to September. The rainfall during June is likely to be from normal to above normal and well distributed. Overall, the southwest monsoon rainfall across the country is most likely to be normal i.e. 96 percent to 104 percent of the long period average (LPA).

Quantitatively, the monsoon rainfall across the country as a whole is likely to be 101 percent of the LPA with a model error of ± 4 percent. The LPA of the seasonal rainfall across the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 was 88 cm. The southwest monsoon rainfall is most likely to be normal over northwest India at (92 percent to 108 percent and south peninsula at 93 percent to 107 percent. Seasonal rainfall is most likely to be below normal over northeast India at 106 percent.

The seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which consists of most of the rainfed agriculture regions in the country is most likely to be above normal i.e. above 106 percent of the LPA. The seasonal rainfall is likely to be well distributed spatially. Most parts of the country are expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall during the season.

The latest global model forecasts indicate that the prevailing neutral ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) conditions are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and possibility of development of negative IOD conditions over the Indian Ocean during the monsoon season.

As sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean are known to have strong influence on the Indian monsoon, the IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these oceans' basin.