The big fertility crisis: At 1.9 births per woman, India's TFR falls below replacement level

New Delhi: India's total fertility rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9 births per woman, falling below the replacement level of 2.1, which means on average, Indian women are having fewer children than needed to maintain the population size from one generation to the next, without migration.

UNFPA's 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) Report, released by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), stated that it is time to shift from panic over falling fertility to addressing unmet reproductive goals.

What does the report say?

1. Despite the slowing birth rate, India's youth population remains significant, with 24 per cent in the age bracket of 0-14, 17 per cent in the 10-19 age bracket, and 26 per cent in the 10-24

2. The agency has taken its strongest line yet on fertility decline, warning that hundreds of millions of people are not able to have the number of children they want, citing the prohibitive cost of parenthood and the lack of a suitable partner as some of the reasons.

3. UNFPA surveyed 14,000 people in 14 countries about their fertility intentions. One in five said they haven't had or expect they won't have their desired number of children.

4. The countries surveyed - South Korea, Thailand, Italy, Hungary, Germany, Sweden, Brazil, Mexico, the US, India, Indonesia, Morocco, South Africa, and Nigeria.

5. In all countries, 39% of people said financial limitations prevented them from having a child.

6. The highest response was in Korea (58%), the lowest in Sweden (19%).

7. In total, only 12% of people cited infertility or difficulty conceiving as a reason for not having the number of children they wanted. But that figure was higher in countries including Thailand (19%), the US (16%), South Africa (15%), Nigeria (14%), and India (13%).

8. According to the UN estimates, India's population at present stands at 1,463.9 million.

9. India is now the world's most populous nation, with nearly 1.5 billion people – a number expected to grow to about 1.7 billion before it begins to fall, around 40 years from now, the report said.

10. States like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Delhi have sustained below-replacement fertility, but Bihar, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh continue to experience high fertility rates, resulting in ‘high fertility and low fertility duality’.

11. In 1960, when India's population was about 436 million, the average woman had nearly six children.

11. According to the report findings, this is the real crisis, not underpopulation or overpopulation, and the answer lies in greater reproductive agency - a person's ability to make free and informed 150 per cent choices about sex, contraception, and starting a family.

Factors affecting reproductive rights

1. Financial limitations: Almost 4 in 10 persons said that financial limitations stop them from having the family size they want.

2. Job insecurity (21%), housing constraints (22%), and lack of reliable childcare (18%) are reported as making parenthood feel out of reach.

3. Health barriers, including limited pregnancy-related care, general well-being, and infertility, are considered major concerns

4. Growing anxiety about climate change, political and social instability are considered other concerns.

5. Pressure from partners or family has forced 19% of respondents to have fewer children.

The five key pillars suggested for the rights-based approach are:

1. Expanding Sexual Reproductive Health services with universal access to contraception, safe abortion, maternal health, and infertility care.

2. Removing structural barriers by investing in childcare, education, housing, and workplace flexibility.

3. Promoting inclusive policies extending services to unmarried individuals, LGBTQIA+ persons, and other marginalized groups.

4. Improving data and accountability beyond fertility rates to measure unmet family planning needs and bodily autonomy.

5. Fostering social change through community initiatives, challenging stigma, and building health literacy.