Why is Telangana likely to see less rains this monsoon

Hyderabad: The monsoon this year is likely to be ‘below normal’ for India, and for most parts of Telangana. That means one thing for farmers and families alike: it is time to plan water use carefully.

‘No need to panic’

However, experts have made it clear that it is neither a ‘flood’ nor a ‘drought-like’ situation, so there is no reason to panic. But the rains are going to be below normal.

According to the private weather agency Skymet’s monsoon forecast for 2026, India will receive 94 per cent of the long-period average rainfall, with an error margin of ±5 per cent. In simple words, the country will get slightly less rain than usual.

What does this mean for farmers?

For a farmer in Telangana, the key question is not just how much rain will fall, but when and where. The eastern districts of the state, including Khammam, Bhadradri Kothagudem and parts of Mahabubabad, are likely to get normal rainfall.

But other parts, including Hyderabad, Nizamabad and much of the western and central belts, may receive below-normal rains.

‘Choose millets, pulses or maize instead of paddy’

So what should a farmer do? Mahesh Palawat, Vice President at Skymet Weather, has a suggestion. “They should resort to crops which are water resistant or which respire lesser amount of water,” he said. It is suggested that it’s better to move away from paddy in rain-fed areas and choose millets, pulses or maize instead, which consume less water.

No flood, no drought

The forecast may sound worrying, but Palawat offered reassurance. “It will not be completely dry,” he said. “Although rainfall will be slightly below normal, a drought-like situation will not occur. Farmers need not panic,” added Palawat.

He also pointed out a silver lining. “The frequent red spells like flash floods, which we encounter during July and November, will be less,” he said. This means the violent downpours that often inundate low-lying areas and damage crops may actually be fewer this year.

Why is this happening?

The main reason is El Niño, which is a warming of the Pacific Ocean that weakens India’s monsoon winds. According to Skymet’s report, El Niño conditions are expected to grow stronger as the monsoon progresses.

The agency’s monthly forecast shows June at 101 per cent (normal), but July at 95 per cent, August at 92 per cent and September at 89 per cent. So, apart from June, the other months of the monsoon are expected to see below the normal rainfalls.

What does the IMD say?

The India Meteorological Department has not released its official forecast yet. According to the sources, they are expected to release their monsoon forecast by mid-April.