Yogendra Yadav on how he got 2024 polls predictions right, why Opposition needs coherent agenda

Hyderabad: Yogendra Yadav wears several hats. He is a writer, psephologist and political activist and is currently associated with the Bharat Jodo Abhiyan and Swaraj India.

In a threadbare interview with NewsMeter during his trip to Hyderabad earlier this week and later speaking in a conversation at The Quorum – a private members club at Gachibowli – he shared his thoughts on the recent Parliament election results and how he got his predictions right when others went wrong, why he termed the election a ‘plebiscite’, the way forward for the opposition alliance, his call for resistance movements on streets, various States lamenting Union Budget allocations, North-South differences and how regional parties saved India from going the Soviet Union way and why BJP would drop delimitation plans post its show in South.

Here are excerpts from the topics that Yogendra Yadav covered during the conversation:

NM: What do you mean by PM Modi losing a ‘plebiscite’?

Yogendra Yadav: If it were a normal election, then clearly the ruling party could have claimed that the pre-election coalition had secured a majority and doing that in the second election as an incumbent for the third term would normally not be a small achievement. However, this was not an election. This was not an election at all.

This was a plebiscite and a plebiscite that was carried out in a very controlled manner by the regime, almost leaving nothing to chance to ensure that a defeat for the regime would be highly impossible. In the garb of an election, it was a plebiscite.

The country was being asked to say yes or no to Modi’s guarantee. NDA was never in the contest. BJP was never the issue.

This election was about Mr Modi and the BJP itself presented it that way. This was a plebiscite on the Supreme Leader. It’s a plebiscite on the personal listing of the Supreme Leader.

The media, money, administrative machinery and the Election Commission itself were completely biased and completely lopsided.

There was nothing remotely like a level playing ground. So, in the context of all this, a tally of 240 seats is indeed a defeat. It’s a moral defeat for the NDA government, a political defeat for the BJP, and a personal defeat for the prime minister.

I don’t think the opposition can claim that they have the mandate. They don’t have the mandate. The reasonable thing would be to say that the BJP has the numbers to form the government, the NDA has the numbers, but they do not have a mandate.

Nor does the opposition. So, this election, since it was a plebiscite (for a yes or no), Mr Modi lost the plebiscite, but he managed to get the numbers enough to form the government.

NM: How INDIA can consolidate its impressive show in the elections?

Yogendra Yadav: The numbers or the faith that people have shown in various parts of the country for the opposition alliance is impressive, not by itself, but when seen in the context in which the election was conducted and carried out.

I would not say that this is due to some great strategy of the opposition. The biggest achievement of the opposition was that they stood their ground.

They just stood there. They did not give up or give a walkover unlike in 2019. That was the biggest achievement of the opposition. They fought till the end and they reaped the rewards. Post the 2024 battle, the overall climate is a little less hostile to the opposition now than it used it be earlier.

So, what the opposition needs is, number one, it needs to hold the INDIA coalition and expand it if possible. They need to have an overall strategy, not merely a political strategy, they need a social strategy. And the strategy would be to work out a social coalition at the bottom of the pyramid.

This is what the opposition needs to build. And also present a coherent agenda to the country, which they have not so far. That is what the opposition should do.

The opposition unity should be visible, not only during election time, not also within the Parliament. But it has to be visible on the street as well. Only in that scenario, they would have a greater chance of maybe dethroning the present NDA government.

NM: What is your take on the row over your call for resistance movements on the streets?

Yogendra Yadav: There is an industry for spreading falsehood, which the BJP has bought, and BJP trolls have been doing it.

It’s not the first time that they have distorted, misquoted and made complete lies of what I’ve said. They have done it umpteen number of times and this is one more instance to show how desperate they have become after this moral defeat.

I said a few days ago this thing in Chennai in a lecture and you would have noticed on Twitter and social media. There is a call for my arrest because I am calling for civil war. These people think that talking about people’s movements is to talk about civil war in this country. They must be so afraid of the people.

The basic problem with the BJP is that they fear movements. The prime minister has his views on andolans (protests) but he forgets that this country is the product of an andolan, which is the freedom struggle of this country. The BJP has a deep fear of the people built into their ideology.

What I have said is something basic and elementary, which is the heart of any vibrant democracy. Elections, government and the Parliament; that is only one part of democracy. People’s movements, street protests and popular resistance are very much part of democracy. And of course, I speak of the non-violent movement, democratic movements. You mentioned the Telangana movement. I could add to it the farmers’ movement. I could add the protest against CAA. These are three of the recent visible ones.

As we speak today, there must be some thousand dharnas going on in this country in different places. This is very much a part of the system, a normal and healthy democracy. And I said that after the 2024 elections, I expect this to be strengthened.

I said that the republic, in the last instance, is saved by the public. Popular protest movements on the street and resistance are what is needed to save the republic. Those who do not understand the word resistance should go back to school.

NM: What do you think about the Union budget 2024-25 and the allegations of discrimination by the States?

Yogendra Yadav: First of all, the most important thing about budgets is not these little projects and announcements. These are little distractions. The real thing on which a budget should be exempted is the question of the overall economy, the overall direction of the economy and how it addresses some of the key questions in our country.

Our economy has some serious issues today. We have GDP growth, but we do not have an increase in consumption expenditure, private investment or employment. That growth is warranted.

In that situation, the real question should be, has the budget addressed that? The second question should be, has the budget done anything special for deeper concerns like education, health and the environment? And sadly, the answer for all these is no, no and no. There is no direction. There is no sense of priority.

And it is quite clear that the government has learned nothing from the election results. To the business of money being thrown at Bihar and Andhra Pradesh, that’s a straightforward political quid pro quo. I would not say other states have got a raw deal, because other than these two, no one else has got anything.

But it’s straightforward. I think they are paying the rent. It’s a political rent being paid.

I don’t mind Andhra Pradesh getting something or Bihar getting something. But I think what we also do not quite see is that what is being talked about is also not quite there. In the case of Andhra Pradesh, that Rs 15,000 crores is not being made to them.

All that the government has said is a play on words. What they have said is that we would facilitate the Andhra Pradesh government to raise loans from multilateral agencies. Why do you need to even say that in a budget? How does it matter to the budget? So, these are fake announcements.

And that’s the problem with much of the budgets of the BJP in the recent past has been this. Earlier, the budget used to be a statement of income and expenditure. These days, budgets are statements of governments’ intentions and wishes on multiple fronts, without any money being allocated to any of those things.

For example, the finance minister has spoken about natural farming and its importance. I just checked the allocation and it has been reduced. That is completely misleading stuff.

NM: What are your plans for Bharat Jodo Abhiyan and forming the Swaraj Party in Telangana?

Yogendra Yadav: You see, our role was very limited. Bharat Jodo Abhiyan was also to ensure the defeat of the BJP.

In the Assembly elections, our thing was to defeat communalism and also dictatorship that the BRS represented. In the Parliamentary election, we were openly supporting INDIA (alliance) for election. We are happy that both of these have worked.

How Yogendra Yadav got exit poll predictions right (he gave 275-305 seats for NDA and 205-235 for INDIA)

What I do get satisfaction is in the fact that when the elections were happening, and when the mainstream media, almost the entire mainstream media, had declared it to be a no contest at all, at that point, my colleagues and I were travelling like you do, speaking to ordinary people. And we were able to see that this is certainly not.

This election was not the way the media was reporting these things and I get some satisfaction. I don’t see why it should be such a great achievement.

By and large, you should expect everyone to be able to see. We did not have any special techniques or any special instruments. Just if you were to compare it in medical terminology, others had thermometers while we were just checking pulse with hand. Normally those with thermometers should do much better. And it’s not an argument against thermometers.

So, the real question is not how we performed some kind of magic, which we did not. The real question should be why the thermometers got it so wrong. That is a question we should be asking. Also, it is ridiculous to claim that because our reading was better than exit polls, surveys don’t matter, exit polls are bogus and things of that kind. If the thermometer gets it wrong, well, change the thermometer. But it cannot be an argument against thermometers in general. Surveys are good. You need surveys.

I predicted a political earthquake in UP: Yogendra

I predicted a political earthquake in UP. What happened in UP was this and I must confess, I’m a political activist. I was very depressed by the end of March. I kept seeing on television that the BJP could be stopped. But I didn’t stop there. Because I wasn’t sure it was going to be stopped. Because I wasn’t sure the opposition was able to do what they were doing, or what they should have done.

I thought something very big was at stake in this election and my heart was sinking every day. Then, in the first week of April, whenever I felt very depressed, I would just go out and speak to ordinary people. The rule of the game is, when I travel, not to speak to any journalist, not to meet any political worker or leader, not to speak to shopkeepers, not to speak to people who have strong opinions. I go near, for example, a jhootawaala (cobbler), sit next to him and strike up a conversation. You should not go to a tea shop. Because when we have five or ten people, then they start performing.

Try to take the views of common people and the poorest of the poor and you go beyond the initial thing. And within ten minutes, Indians are Indians. They are happy to not only tell you who they are going to vote for, but they can also tell you what their problem with their wife is. But you have to wait for those ten minutes to have a decent conversation, to strike a rapport and to have a casual sort of conversation, which is what we would do.

So, I first did a tour of about 1,500 km spread over four states (UP, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan). Four states and I said, yaar aur kuch bhi hai, wo toh nahi hai, jo TV pe bataya jah rahe hai (Something is missing). But I wasn’t sure then. Because, you know, after all, this is too big a thing.

So, then I did another tour. Started this time in Lucknow. Because UP was the political heart of the country. Lucknow, Amethi and Rai Bareli, then down to Allahabad and from there to Banaras.

And so, the first time when I did the first tour, I said, it doesn’t look, because the media was saying, not only is the BJP going to retain their 60 plus seats in UP, they’re going to improve upon it. So, after coming back from the first one, I said, it doesn’t look like they’re improving. Having done the second tour, I wrote and I have a record. I said it is going to be a political earthquake in Uttar Pradesh and the reason was very simple. In the entire travel, we also did a third one to reconfirm, because so much was at stake. During this entire travel, I must have personally spoken to about 1,000 persons. I met just one person who said, he had not voted for BJP last time, but he’s going to vote for them now, only one person.

For the Samajwadi Party, not a single person said, I voted for them last time and I’m not going to vote for them this time. In the case of BJP, depending on which region you work in, every third or every fourth or every fifth voter was saying that they voted for them last time. That’s basically what I based it upon because the indication of change was so clear.

Most unfree and unfair election in the history of Independent India, worse than 1977

To my mind, this was the most unfree and unfair election in the history of independent India, worse than 1977. I need not tell you everything, all of us watched this on television.

The 2024 election was not normal, it was a plebiscite. And what was the plebiscite about? I mean we never were a proper full-fledged democracy; we were a deeply flawed democracy. In the last 10 years, we have gone from being a flawed democracy to being what is technically described as competitive authoritarianism, which is like Turkey. You have an authoritarian government which holds elections and can sometimes lose. There is very little democracy outside of elections.

This time what was at stake was that from being a competitive authoritarianism we were about to slide into electoral autocracy. What is electoral autocracy? Putin’s Russia, where it’s autocracy and it is straight and simple. Elections are held only nominally and routinely and you always know the result. This is what was at stake and there was nothing, nothing was left to the chance. There was nothing normal about this election.

Advantage Opposition over BJP in upcoming assembly polls in Maharashtra and Haryana

Honestly, I think the First Republic of India is over. We Indians are not used to this language. In France, they are used to this language. First republic, second republic, third republic and so on. The first republic of India came to an end around 2019 or so. The BJP had clear designs about what the second republic would be. They thought it would be a Hindu Rashtra, electoral autocracy, one nation, one election etc. There has been a break on that.

It has not yet been reversed. It has been halted. So, what are the opportunities? What are the reasons for hope from my point of view? Because I look forward to a second republic which is truer to the Constitutional promise. Frankly, I do not have much hope from the allies. The whole idea that Nitish and Naidu somehow will save the democracy and secularism of this country is a rather naive hope. They got a few things yesterday.

But that’s a small part of the deal. In India, what happens over the table is always smaller than what happens under the table. So that’s alright. I don’t expect much to happen. Frankly, I have no expectations from the institutional apparatus in India. That’s very much under their control and the BJP knows how to use state power like no other party does. I hope that the opposition parties have found a voice. Those who could not protest effectively when 140 of their MPs were thrown out of the Parliament, could not protest effectively then.

They found some voice and thank God for that. That gives me some hope. But more than that, I take hope from the fact that people’s movements, street protests, and popular resistance, are going to gain strength.

About the coming Assembly elections, in Maharashtra, it’s for the opposition to lose. In Haryana too, I sense that the opposition has an advantage. If someone can defeat the Congress in Haryana, it’s only the Congress right now, which it can do. But I don’t know whether it can or not. So, you see, Assembly elections are important because they would set a trend. The BJP would do everything possible, fair and foul, but they know what they face is a defeat.

There's a North-South difference, which is not a North-South divide

You have to simply travel in this country to realise that the moment you cross Vindhyas, things get better.

Governance gets a shade better. Human development is better. The level of prosperity is better. There is no difference in corruption, however. Someone said very nicely once, it’s not north-south. If you draw a line from. For example, from Ahmedabad to Hyderabad, or probably from Udaipur to Hyderabad, everyone on this side of the line and every side of that side of the line, that’s the developmental divide in India.

I do think that in terms of its political demographic, the South has been and many states of the South have been more rooted in their local regional issues. And I think that is to be celebrated. I’ve repeatedly said regionalism has saved India. You know, people think regionalism is a problem. I think regional parties have saved us. Regional parties have kept India united from becoming another Soviet Union. There’s so much happening in South India that I would like to be exported to North India.

Last year when Rahul Gandhi’s yatra started from Kanyakumari, I wrote and spoke about Dakshinayan, which is that for far too long; ideas and leaders from the North have tried to teach the rest of the country how to behave. It’s time we picked up some influences from the South and carried them to the rest of India, which is a very strong sense of federalism, a strong sense of social justice, very strong social justice movements, and some of the best welfarist things, some of the best welfare provisions from the South and have travelled to North.