Covid-19: Doubling time of cases is 7.4 days, deaths is 30.9 days in TS

Hyderabad: The doubling time of Covid-19 cases in Telangana is only 7.4 days, says an analysis of Covid cases between June 20 and June 24 among the Indian states that have reported more than 1,000 cases.

According to the fresh data consolidated by an independent health expert, Rijo M. John, sourced from Covid-19India.org, the doubling rate of deaths due to Covid-19 in the state, on a five-day average, till June 24 is 30.9 days. The analysis predicts the number of Covid-19 cases in Telangana to double by the next 7.4 days and deaths by the next 30 days.

This analysis on the doubling time of Covid cases and deaths in terms of days among 23 Indian states that have more than 1,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases has put Telangana in the last position, with respect to doubling time of cases and 19th position with respect to deaths.

“Doubling time depends on the current growth rate. For instance, if there are 1,000 Covid-19 cases today in Telangana, it gives an idea on how many days it will take for the state to reach 2,000 cases based on the current rate. If there are 1,000 cases today and 1,100 tomorrow, then we say the doubling is at a rate of 10 per cent and predict the third day to have a 10 per cent increase, i.e. 1,210.” John said.

The states having the lowest doubling time are actually experiencing very high growth rate. Telangana has the least doubling time in the latest analysis. This means the number of days required for cases to increase in Telangana is low compared to many other states.

The expert also said it is not always necessary for the doubling time to materialise. He said if there are 1,000 cases today and only 50 cases tomorrow, then the doubling time prediction might not materialise.

“In general, a trend in case of pandemics is that at the initial stages, the growth will always be up and it does not come down but if the number of total cases keep reducing, then a two-week doubling time might go up to 16-17 days. But if the total cases keep increasing, then the doubling time can decrease from two weeks to 10 days,” John added.

The Telangana health department authorities on June 25, announced that Covid-19 tests will be stalled for 2 days to clear the pending samples. “To clear testing of the pending samples and to sanitise the health camps, collection of samples at the camps would be stalled for two days, beginning June 25. However, tests will conducted as usual at the Covid hospitals in the state,” the authorities said.

This comes after the state reported 800 plus new Covid-19 cases, every 24 hours, for three straight days. In just 9 days, the state recorded a hike in cases from 5,000 to 10,000 positive cases.

“Whether Telangana tests or not, the cases will happen. Tests are about how much we can identify. With the current trend of cases we can assume if there are 10,000 cases in Telangana, in next seven days it will become 20,000. Also, if there are 230 Covid deaths in the state today, after 30 days it might reach 460. However, this number can change if the state decided to suddenly revise its numbers like Maharashtra which suddenly classified more number of deaths under Covid deaths,” the health expert suggested.

Meanwhile, Telangana’s latest health bulletin on June 26th, revealed few startling facts about the private labs conducting COVID tests, besides reporting another new highest single-day-jump. The state with 985 new COVID cases reported on Friday, crossed 12,000 mark in a span of 24 hours. While seven more have succumbed to the virus, taking the death toll to 237.

However, what grabbed the focus in the health bulletin was the discrepancies detected in the medical reports submitted by the private labs. The led blew of when the state government officials conducted an inspection across labs. “The committee expressed a suspicion that, in some labs pooled testing being done.The labs are not conducting individual test, but pooled and reporting all positive. This is resulting in few negative patients being tested positive," read the bulletin.

The committee also found disparity in the data entered by private labs into ICMR and State Portals.”At one of the Labs in a major hospital, the actual number of tests conducted were 3,940 but they have uploaded only 1,568 tests and shown 475 as positive. This is resulting in high positivity rate. The tendency of some of the private labs is a matter of grave concern as it not only gives false positive reports but also puts other patients visiting these centres and the staff under the threat of spread of COVID-19″ the health officials said.