Fake opinion poll predicts AAP winning maximum seats in upcoming Gujarat polls
A graphic of an opinion poll predicting a close contest between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) in the upcoming Gujrat Assembly election is circulating on social media.
By Md Mahfooz Alam Published on 8 Nov 2022 10:16 AM GMT
Hyderabad: A graphic of an opinion poll predicting a close contest between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) in the upcoming Gujrat Assembly election is circulating on social media. The opinion poll for the 182-seat Gujarat Assembly predicts 81-87 seats for AAP, 76-82 seats for BJP, and 19-25 seats for the Congress party.
A Twitter user shared a similar opinion poll graphic predicting the results for 114 seats in 20 districts of Gujarat. It predicts 51-53 seats for BJP, 31-36 seats for AAP, and 32-34 seats for the Congress party.
The claim comes after the Election Commission, on 3 November, announced the dates for the Gujrat Assembly elections. The polls will be held in two phases on 1 December and 5 December, and the result will be declared on 8 December.
Fact Check
NewsMeter noticed that both the graphics do not mention any news organisation or agency as the source of their prediction. We ran a keyword search but did not find any recently released opinion poll predicting 81-87 seats for AAP and 76-82 seats for BJP.
The opinion poll of ABP News-CVoter and India TV-Matrize published on 4 November suggested that the BJP may win the absolute majority in Gujarat.
India TV-Matrize predicted BJP could win the majority with 119 seats, while the Congress may win 59 seats and the Aam Aadmi Party may win only three seats.
ABP News-CVoter predicted that the BJP would get 131-139 seats, followed by Congress with 31-39 seats, and the AAP would be a distant third with 7-15 seats.
Since the viral graphics do not cite any source for their opinion poll and we also did not find any credible news organisation or polling agency predicting those numbers, we conclude that both graphics are fake. Hence, the claim is false.
Earlier, an altered opinion poll graphic of India TV predicting AAP's majority in the Gujarat Assembly election was in circulation on social media. The graphic was debunked by NewsMeter.
