New Delhi: According to the National Weather Forecasting Centre of the India Meteorological Department the monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to take place by 03rd June 2021.
As per the latest meteorological indications, the southwesterly winds could strengthen further gradually from June 1, resulting in a likely enhancement in rainfall activity over Kerala.
According to IMD the Western Disturbance now seen as a trough in mid and upper tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level roughly along longitude 70°E to the north of latitude 28°N.
After arriving over the Andaman Sea on May 21, the southwest monsoon covered the island and most areas of the Bay of Bengal, the Maldives, and Comorin regions.
A cyclonic circulation lies over Tamil Nadu and the neighborhood between 5.8 & 7.6 km above mean sea level. The trough from the cyclonic circulation over southeast Madhya Pradesh and neighborhood to south Tamil Nadu across Vidarbha, Telangana, and Rayalaseema at 0.9 km above mean sea level has become less marked.
The onset of monsoon over Kerala is declared when 14 or more meteorological stations in the state record rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days any time after May 10. Appropriate values of the westerly winds and the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) over the southeast Arabian Sea and the neighborhood regions are also taken into consideration.
The normal onset date for the monsoon over Kerala is June 1. This marks the start of the four-month rainfall season for the country.
Earlier this month, the IMD had predicted the arrival of monsoon over Kerala by May 31 with an error margin of plus or minus five days. Monsoon is expected to be normal this year.